Brazil

Real-Time Payments Forecasted to Help Generate 2.08% of GDP by 2026 

Brazil is a real-time payments success story; of all countries covered in the Cebr economic impact study, by 2026 the country has the largest forecasted GDP facilitated by real-time payments in percentage terms (2.08%). 

In 2021, the country recorded 8.7 billion real-time transactions, mainly due to the popularity of the PIX real-time payments ecosystem. The widespread adoption of real-time payments resulted in estimated cost savings of $5.7 billion for businesses and consumers in 2021, which helped to unlock $5.5 billion of additional economic output. That represents 0.34% of the country’s GDP. 

With real-time payment transaction numbers expected to rise to 82.4 billion in 2026, net savings for consumers and businesses are forecasted to climb to $37.9 billion. That would help to generate an additional $37.6 billion of economic output, equivalent to 2.08% of the country’s forecasted GDP.  

Brazil has two real-time payment infrastructures in operation: SITRAF and PIX. SITRAF was the first to be introduced in 2002 and PIX was introduced in 2020. SITRAF only provides operation during banking hours, which limits the volume of activities the platform can manage. PIX is a real-time payments system that operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year. Since its launch in 2020, it has already surpassed SITRAF adoption among participants, as it is available to the customers of 761 financial institutions whereas SITRAF only has 104 participants.  

In 2021, real-time payments represented a 5.3% share of total payments volume: much smaller than electronic payments (excluding real-time payments) and paper-based transactions, which were 29.4% and 65.2%, respectively. But its market share is expected to grow significantly by 2026, reaching 34.3% share of payments volume and surpassing electronic payments (excluding real-time payments), which will decrease to 26.3%, and challenging paper-based transactions, which will be at 39.4%. In terms of payments spend, real-time payments represented a 13.4% share of total payments spend while electronic payments (excluding real-time payments) stood at 83.6% and paper-based transactions were at only at 3%.  

We are expecting real-time payments to carve itself a bigger share of payments value by 2026, as it is projected to reach 42.8%. PIX, which makes it easy for consumers to use real-time payments at merchants and for daily expenditures, is the main driver of this shift. Its full integration into the financial system and the strength of its backing from the government has given it a strong start, and it is projected to significantly impact the Brazilian economy as a result.