Netherlands

EUROPE

Real-Time Payments Forecasted to Help Generate 0.23% of GDP by 2026

In 2021, the country recorded 1.2 billion real-time transactions, which resulted in an estimated cost savings of $338 million for businesses and consumers. This helped to unlock $1.2 billion of additional economic output, which represents 0.12% of the country’s GDP.

With real-time payment transaction numbers expected to rise to 3.4 billion in 2026, net savings for consumers and businesses are forecasted to climb to $1.6 billion. That would help to generate an additional $2.6 billion of economic output, equivalent to 0.23% of the country’s forecasted GDP.

The Netherlands introduced its real-time payments infrastructure when banks adopted SCT Inst in 2019. SCT Inst is a pan-European real-time payments scheme that was developed by the European Payments Commission (EPC). It provides instant payment transfers within any countries that are part of the eurozone. Real-time payments had a rapid adoption in the Netherlands. By 2021, the real-time payments market share of total payments volume reached 10%, rapidly catching up to paper-based transactions, which were at a 13.9% share of total payments volume. Future projections for real-time payments are expecting strong growth as a payments tool and becoming the second most used payments tool in terms of total payments volume and total payments spend. Real-time payments volume is expected to have a five-year CAGR of 22% for the period of 2021-2026, and real-time payments spend is expected to have a five-year CAGR of 52% for the same period.

Key Stats

Real-Time Payment Types

Single Instance

Bulk Payments

Initiation/Authorization Methods

Bank Account

Mobile

Email

QR Code

Year of Real-Time
Payments Launch

2017

Availability

365
24/7

Message Standard

ISO
20022

ACI’s Take

The Netherlands is a nation that strongly favors debit payments over credit. That means immediate debit schemes play well to consumers generally, which has helped real-time payments to become well established in the market. Nowhere is this better illustrated than in the eCommerce space, where the iDEAL payments scheme was used for 70% of payments in the first half of 2021 and was used by 96% of online shoppers. But, more broadly, real-time payments for P2P transactions have been in widespread use for two years already and the corporate market is also showing strong growth, although additional use cases are required to make further inroads.

Chief among those use cases would be real-time batch payments. This would immediately make real-time payments more relevant to businesses and provide a high-value revenue stream for banks that would also — potentially — set them on the longer-term path to retiring significant legacy architectures.

the Netherlands has less to gain by modernizing its payments infrastructure (whereas markets that are only just standing up real-time payments also have the opportunity to launch with a broader range of use cases from day one). In the Netherlands today, real-time payments are settled in their place in the payments ecosystem, meaning there’s little appetite to implement new services like Request to Pay. That is a reasonable decision given current market conditions, but banks should be mindful of the risks around imported innovations from international competitors or the emergence of new market entrants. (PSD2 not only makes the latter more likely, but it also gives rise to opportunities for banks to build their own premium services.)

Finally, financial institutions in the Netherlands are pioneers of payment processing in the cloud. The market’s leading banks are sold on the vision of winding down much of their own data center commitments to increase efficiency and scalability, and transition much of their IT cost base to an operational expense. To that end, we see these organizations making concrete steps to migrate payment processing to the cloud by the end of 2022. This will be the first step on a wider transformation journey towards adopting payment processing as a service.

History

Mobile Wallet Trends

30.0%

% of adults who have a mobile wallet and have
used it in the past year (2021)

Real-Time Acceptance


Banks

Merchants

Consumers

Billers

Real-Time Total Participants

14

Population Banking Level

2.2

Number of debit, credit and
charge cards per adult

96

Index to global average

  • Fully Banked
  • Progressing
  • Underbanked

Real-Time Transactions

1.2B

2021

3.4B

2026f

22.6%

F5 Yr CAGR

Payments Fraud Rate

6.6%

Population who reported being a
victim of fraud in the last 4 years

Top 3 Payment Fraud Types

% of fraud victims Trend
34.3%

Confidence trick

17.1%

Identity theft

11.4%

Card details stolen online

Share of Volumes by Payments Instrument

Transactions

  • Paper-based payments
  • Electronic payments
  • Real-time payments
2021



2026



Spend (USD)

2021



2026


Real-Time Payments Volume and Its Share in Overall Non-Paper-Based Transactions, 2015-26f


% of total electronic payments transaction volume

Trends + Data

Cloud Management Platform



44.4%
44.4%

Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)



55.6%
55.6%

Hybrid Cloud



55.6%
44.4%

Managed Cloud Service



44.4%
33.3%
  • Current priority
  • Planned

Platform as a Service (PaaS)



Private Cloud



Software as a Service (SaaS)



Cebr

The Netherlands is a high-income country that, as of 2021, ranked as the 18th largest global economy (Cebr World Economic League Table, 2022).

In 2021, 10% of all transactions in the country were real-time, a figure in line with the U.K. but outpacing Eurozone counterparts France and Germany.

As a result of its strong real-time adoption, consumers and businesses in the Netherlands benefited from efficiency savings of $338 million in 2021, with real-time payments ultimately supporting 0.12% of the formal economy ($1.2 billion) in the same year, equivalent to the output supported by 11,412 jobs.

By 2026, the share of transactions by volume is forecasted to grow to 21.2% — at a CAGR of 22.6% — driving the impact of real-time payments for consumers and businesses up to $1.6 billion. This result is underpinned by the significant benefits generated by the reduction in the size of the payments float, which is estimated to unlock a total transaction value of $2.9 billion per day in 2026. This working capital is expected to facilitate an estimated $1.1 billion of business output in 2026.

At the macroeconomic level, economy-wide efficiency gains are estimated to facilitate $2.6 billion of economic output or 0.23 % of formal GDP in 2026, equivalent to the output supported by 21,835 jobs.

For Businesses and Consumers

2021

$338M

Net savings stimulated by real-time payments

2026

$1.6B

Projected net savings stimulated by real-time payments

GDP Growth

2021

$1.2B

of economic output

2021

0.12%

of GDP facilitated by real-time payments

2026

$2.6B

Projected of economic output

2026

0.23%

of GDP facilitated by real-time payments

Downloads

Consumer Payments

The Need for Speed to Market in Consumer Payments - Payments modernization as a response to customer demand

Download PDF

Fraud Management Insights

Expanding the Horizons of Fraud Detection - The Network Intelligence Approach to Machine Learning

Download PDF

Whitepaper

Defining and Building the Next-Generation Payments Hub - Global survey report from ACI Worldwide and Edgar, Dunn & Company

Download PDF

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