Real-Time Payments Forecasted to Help Generate 0.23% of GDP by 2026
In 2021, the country recorded 1.2 billion real-time transactions, which resulted in an estimated cost savings of $338 million for businesses and consumers. This helped to unlock $1.2 billion of additional economic output, which represents 0.12% of the country’s GDP.
With real-time payment transaction numbers expected to rise to 3.4 billion in 2026, net savings for consumers and businesses are forecasted to climb to $1.6 billion. That would help to generate an additional $2.6 billion of economic output, equivalent to 0.23% of the country’s forecasted GDP.
The Netherlands introduced its real-time payments infrastructure when banks adopted SCT Inst in 2019. SCT Inst is a pan-European real-time payments scheme that was developed by the European Payments Commission (EPC). It provides instant payment transfers within any countries that are part of the eurozone. Real-time payments had a rapid adoption in the Netherlands. By 2021, the real-time payments market share of total payments volume reached 10%, rapidly catching up to paper-based transactions, which were at a 13.9% share of total payments volume. Future projections for real-time payments are expecting strong growth as a payments tool and becoming the second most used payments tool in terms of total payments volume and total payments spend. Real-time payments volume is expected to have a five-year CAGR of 22% for the period of 2021-2026, and real-time payments spend is expected to have a five-year CAGR of 52% for the same period.
Real-Time Payment Types
Year of Real-Time
The Netherlands is a nation that strongly favors debit payments over credit. That means immediate debit schemes play well to consumers generally, which has helped real-time payments to become well established in the market. Nowhere is this better illustrated than in the eCommerce space, where the iDEAL payments scheme was used for 70% of payments in the first half of 2021 and was used by 96% of online shoppers. But, more broadly, real-time payments for P2P transactions have been in widespread use for two years already and the corporate market is also showing strong growth, although additional use cases are required to make further inroads.
Chief among those use cases would be real-time batch payments. This would immediately make real-time payments more relevant to businesses and provide a high-value revenue stream for banks that would also — potentially — set them on the longer-term path to retiring significant legacy architectures.
the Netherlands has less to gain by modernizing its payments infrastructure (whereas markets that are only just standing up real-time payments also have the opportunity to launch with a broader range of use cases from day one). In the Netherlands today, real-time payments are settled in their place in the payments ecosystem, meaning there’s little appetite to implement new services like Request to Pay. That is a reasonable decision given current market conditions, but banks should be mindful of the risks around imported innovations from international competitors or the emergence of new market entrants. (PSD2 not only makes the latter more likely, but it also gives rise to opportunities for banks to build their own premium services.)
Finally, financial institutions in the Netherlands are pioneers of payment processing in the cloud. The market’s leading banks are sold on the vision of winding down much of their own data center commitments to increase efficiency and scalability, and transition much of their IT cost base to an operational expense. To that end, we see these organizations making concrete steps to migrate payment processing to the cloud by the end of 2022. This will be the first step on a wider transformation journey towards adopting payment processing as a service.
Mobile Wallet Trends
% of adults who have a mobile wallet and have
used it in the past year (2021)
Real-Time Total Participants
Population Banking Level
Number of debit, credit and
charge cards per adult
Index to global average
F5 Yr CAGR
Payments Fraud Rate
Population who reported being a
victim of fraud in the last 4 years
Top 3 Payment Fraud Types
|% of fraud victims||Trend|
Card details stolen online
Share of Volumes by Payments Instrument
- Paper-based payments
- Electronic payments
- Real-time payments
Real-Time Payments Volume and Its Share in Overall Non-Paper-Based Transactions, 2015-26f
The Netherlands is a high-income country that, as of 2021, ranked as the 18th largest global economy (Cebr World Economic League Table, 2022).
In 2021, 10% of all transactions in the country were real-time, a figure in line with the U.K. but outpacing Eurozone counterparts France and Germany.
As a result of its strong real-time adoption, consumers and businesses in the Netherlands benefited from efficiency savings of $338 million in 2021, with real-time payments ultimately supporting 0.12% of the formal economy ($1.2 billion) in the same year, equivalent to the output supported by 11,412 jobs.
By 2026, the share of transactions by volume is forecasted to grow to 21.2% — at a CAGR of 22.6% — driving the impact of real-time payments for consumers and businesses up to $1.6 billion. This result is underpinned by the significant benefits generated by the reduction in the size of the payments float, which is estimated to unlock a total transaction value of $2.9 billion per day in 2026. This working capital is expected to facilitate an estimated $1.1 billion of business output in 2026.
At the macroeconomic level, economy-wide efficiency gains are estimated to facilitate $2.6 billion of economic output or 0.23 % of formal GDP in 2026, equivalent to the output supported by 21,835 jobs.
For Businesses and Consumers
Net savings stimulated by real-time payments
Projected net savings stimulated by real-time payments
of economic output
of GDP facilitated by real-time payments
Projected of economic output
of GDP facilitated by real-time payments
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